Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

1:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 1.82.3
High danger: 32
Chances: 69
Shots: 2423

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances2

1.81Expected goals2.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–7	1–2	0.6–1.4
2nd	9–4	1–1	1–0	0.6–0.3
3rd	6–8	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.81
GSAx: +0.81

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: -0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:13Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 7:37Hunter Haight (0–2)low · 47 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 18:22Penalty
2nd 4:45Penalty
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 5:51Penalty
2nd 14:00Penalty
2nd 14:00Penalty
3rd 5:47Penalty
3rd 6:03Arttu Hyry (1–2)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 10:10Penalty
3rd 10:10Penalty
3rd 14:39Penalty
3rd 19:23Hunter Haight (1–3)empty net · medium · 8 ft · beat Rémi Poirier