AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, November 18

Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers
2:5
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.92.5
High danger
34
Chances
99
Shots
2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances4
2.88Expected goals2.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–92–22–00.8–0.6
2nd10–85–51–31.3–1.5
3rd11–92–20–10.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram
Shots faced
27
Saves
25
Allowed
2
xGA
2.89
GSAx
+0.89
Ivan Prosvetov
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.55
GSAx
-2.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:03Martin Frk (1–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 9 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 1st 4:25Isaac Howard (1–1)medium · backhand · 9 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 1:54Penalty
  • 2nd 3:07William Strömgren (2–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 4:13Penalty
  • 2nd 5:35Quinn Hutson (2–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 20 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 6:58Josh Samanski (2–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 2nd 15:21Penalty
  • 2nd 19:12Penalty
  • 3rd 10:11Penalty
  • 3rd 10:15Penalty
  • 3rd 17:26Roby Järventie (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 126 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
  • 3rd 18:22Isaac Howard (2–5)empty net · low · wrist · 103 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov