Rochester Americans at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Rochester Americans

2:4

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

ROCLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 2.01.3
High danger: 20
Chances: 83
Shots: 2522

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances3

2High-danger chances0

1.96Expected goals1.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	2–1	0–0	0.6–0.3
2nd	6–12	2–2	0–0	0.4–0.9
3rd	10–4	4–0	2–0	1.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:59	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: -0.04

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.30
GSAx: -1.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:57Penalty
1st 15:19Penalty
2nd 0:14Penalty
2nd 4:21Jacob Gaucher (0–1)low · 54 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 6:26Penalty
2nd 10:16Christian Kyrou (0–2)low · 67 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 16:59Penalty
2nd 16:59Penalty
2nd 19:09Penalty
3rd 2:13Penalty
3rd 4:04Viktor Neuchev (1–2)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 5:05Denver Barkey (1–3)low · 57 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 13:28Penalty
3rd 14:04Carson Meyer (2–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 29 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 16:24Penalty
3rd 19:31Zayde Wisdom (2–4)empty net · low · 75 ft