Grand Rapids Griffins at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Grand Rapids Griffins

5:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

GRRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 4.02.0
High danger: 104
Chances: 138
Shots: 3625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal25

13Scoring chances8

10High-danger chances4

3.98Expected goals1.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	1–1	1–1	0.6–0.4
2nd	15–4	7–0	5–0	1.9–0.1
3rd	12–14	5–7	4–3	1.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 31
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.98
GSAx: -1.02

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: +0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:21John Leonard (1–0)low · 12 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
1st 7:49Amadeus Lombardi (2–0)low · 24 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 4:33Penalty
2nd 5:42Eduards Tralmaks (3–0)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
2nd 17:36Penalty
2nd 17:36Penalty
3rd 0:18Penalty
3rd 1:02Penalty
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 9:39William Lagesson (4–0)low · 63 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 11:32Carson Bantle (5–0)grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 13:35Penalty
3rd 13:53Jamie Engelbert (5–1)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 14:40Penalty