AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, November 20

Hershey Bears at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Arena · Cleveland, OH

Hershey Bears
5:2
Final
Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

HERCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
58%42%
xG
2.83.0
High danger
64
Chances
1110
Shots
2934

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLE above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal34
11Scoring chances10
6High-danger chances4
2.77Expected goals3.04

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–105–33–21.2–1.0
2nd10–102–30–10.7–0.8
3rd7–144–43–10.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLE−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLE37:04 of the 3rd12:569:40+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
3.04
GSAx
+1.04
Ivan Fedotov
Shots faced
29
Saves
24
Allowed
5
xGA
2.76
GSAx
-2.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:54Ivan Miroshnichenko (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 1st 6:23Penalty
  • 1st 6:23Penalty
  • 1st 6:23Penalty
  • 1st 6:23Penalty
  • 1st 6:23Penalty
  • 1st 9:28Penalty
  • 1st 10:18Spencer Smallman (2–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 1st 11:07Penalty
  • 1st 12:07Ilya Protas (3–0)5v4 · medium · 38 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 1st 18:00Justin Pearson (3–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 4:12Penalty
  • 3rd 2:04Penalty
  • 3rd 7:04Bogdan Trineyev (4–1)high · 14 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
  • 3rd 8:53Luca Pinelli (4–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 12:09Penalty
  • 3rd 16:59Andrew Cristall (5–2)empty net · medium · 32 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov