Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves

1:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.12.2
High danger: 32
Chances: 68
Shots: 2923

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal23

6Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

2.14Expected goals2.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	0–3	0–1	0.3–1.0
2nd	11–12	5–5	2–1	1.1–1.2
3rd	13–0	1–0	1–0	0.7–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: +1.14

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.24
GSAx: +0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Isaak Phillips (0–1)low · 69 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 4:36Penalty
1st 6:42Penalty
1st 15:19Evan Vierling (1–1)low · 14 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 4:34Danny Zhilkin (1–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 17:57Penalty
3rd 12:55Penalty