Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:5

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

WBSHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.52.3
High danger: 26
Chances: 611
Shots: 3319

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal19

6Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances6

2.46Expected goals2.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	22–6	4–1	1–1	1.5–0.5
2nd	6–6	2–4	1–2	0.6–0.7
3rd	5–7	0–6	0–3	0.3–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	2	13:04 of the 3rd	6:56	6:56	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Callum Tung

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +0.46

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 14
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: -2.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:21Penalty
1st 11:29Penalty
1st 11:37Derrick Pouliot (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Filip Larsson
1st 14:29Owen Pickering (1–1)low · 58 ft · beat Callum Tung
1st 19:54Penalty
2nd 1:12Rafaël Harvey-Pinard (2–1)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Callum Tung
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 8:18Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–2)high · 6 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 10:18Penalty
2nd 10:18Penalty
2nd 13:21Anton Blidh (2–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 2:04Penalty
3rd 13:04Brett Berard (2–4)high · 9 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 15:35Adam Sýkora (2–5)high · 7 ft · beat Filip Larsson