Belleville Senators at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Belleville Senators

3:4

Final / OT

Laval Rocket

The sheet

BELLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.23.8
High danger: 57
Chances: 611
Shots: 2237

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 65% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances7

2.16Expected goals3.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–12	2–3	2–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	4–13	2–4	1–4	0.4–1.5
3rd	8–8	2–3	2–1	1.0–0.9
OT	0–4	0–1	0–0	0.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:25	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: -0.24

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:58Arthur Kaliyev (1–0)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 12:54Will Dineen (1–1)medium · tip · 13 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 14:50Penalty
2nd 11:09David Reinbacher (1–2)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 11:18Scott Harrington (2–2)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 12:06Penalty
2nd 14:35Luke Tuch (2–3)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 19:21Xavier Bourgault (3–3)grade A · wrist · 16 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
OT 2:50Adam Engström (3–4)low · wrist · 30 ft · beat Mads Søgaard