Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

2:3

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

LVPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 3.82.2
High danger: 65
Chances: 188
Shots: 3223

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 66% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal23

18Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances5

3.81Expected goals2.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	6–2	3–2	1.5–0.8
2nd	5–4	3–1	0–0	0.4–0.3
3rd	16–8	9–5	3–3	1.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: +1.81

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:20Jake Schmaltz (0–1)low · 45 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 2:23Penalty
1st 3:59Karsen Dorwart (1–1)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 8:51Patrick Brown (1–2)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 9:58Penalty
1st 9:58Penalty
1st 10:59Penalty
2nd 1:47Penalty
3rd 4:33Jacob Perreault (1–3)high · 12 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 7:28Penalty
3rd 13:21Penalty
3rd 17:48Anthony Richard (2–3)high · 7 ft · beat Simon Zajicek