Bridgeport Islanders at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Bridgeport Islanders

5:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BRIROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.31.8
High danger: 21
Chances: 85
Shots: 2823

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal23

8Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances1

2.28Expected goals1.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	2–3	0–1	0.5–0.7
2nd	11–10	3–1	1–0	1.0–0.8
3rd	11–6	3–1	1–0	0.8–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	19:23 of the 3rd	0:37	0:37	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Topias Leinonen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.28
GSAx: -2.72

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -2.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:29Carson Meyer (0–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
1st 9:01Olivier Nadeau (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 4:43Riley Fiddler-Schultz (0–3)medium · rebound · 30 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 5:02Penalty
2nd 5:36Joey Larson (1–3)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
2nd 10:18Marc Gatcomb (2–3)low · 39 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
2nd 10:35Penalty
2nd 10:56Penalty
2nd 19:24Penalty
3rd 1:50Graham Slaggert (2–4)medium · 18 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 4:01Adam Beckman (3–4)low · 52 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
3rd 7:55Penalty
3rd 11:54Matthew Maggio (4–4)low · 49 ft · beat Topias Leinonen
3rd 17:05Penalty
3rd 17:05Penalty
3rd 19:23Chris Terry (5–4)low · 22 ft · beat Topias Leinonen