Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

4:3

Final / OT

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 2.82.0
High danger: 42
Chances: 95
Shots: 2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances2

2.79Expected goals2.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	3–2	3–1	1.0–0.8
2nd	10–11	2–1	1–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	9–7	3–2	0–1	0.8–0.6
OT	2–2	1–0	0–0	0.2–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	18:03 of the 3rd	1:57	0:30	+0.045 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: -0.97

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: -1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:56Penalty
1st 5:36Penalty
1st 10:48Antonio Stranges (0–1)high · 16 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 14:08Penalty
2nd 6:10Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 17:54Penalty
2nd 17:54Penalty
2nd 17:54Penalty
2nd 17:54Curtis McKenzie (0–2)low · 39 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 4:06Nick Lardis (1–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 8:56Penalty
3rd 9:04Nick Lardis (2–2)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 16:11Penalty
3rd 18:03Nolan Allan (3–2)4v5 · medium · 7 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 18:33Arttu Hyry (3–3)high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
OT 2:37Aidan Thompson (4–3)medium · 6 ft · beat Rémi Poirier