AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 21

Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors
2:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
1.92.5
High danger
45
Chances
810
Shots
1724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal24
8Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances5
1.86Expected goals2.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–92–52–20.5–1.0
2nd3–71–20–10.2–0.6
3rd10–85–32–21.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.54
GSAx
-0.46
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.86
GSAx
-0.14

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:49Penalty
  • 1st 3:14Penalty
  • 1st 6:23Taylor Ward (0–1)low · 30 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 1st 11:18Kenny Connors (0–2)high · rebound · 5 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 1st 13:34Penalty
  • 1st 15:53Penalty
  • 2nd 0:35Penalty
  • 2nd 3:24Penalty
  • 2nd 5:58Penalty
  • 2nd 11:45Jared Wright (0–3)low · 39 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 15:37Penalty
  • 3rd 0:40Penalty
  • 3rd 0:40Penalty
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 10:45Penalty
  • 3rd 10:45Penalty
  • 3rd 14:59Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Viljami Marjala (1–3)medium · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 18:22Quinn Hutson (2–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Pheonix Copley