Milwaukee Admirals at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Milwaukee Admirals

4:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

MILHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.62.3
High danger: 33
Chances: 99
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances3

2.63Expected goals2.33

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	5–4	2–1	1.3–0.9
2nd	11–5	2–1	1–1	0.8–0.4
3rd	7–12	2–4	0–1	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 26
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: +0.33

Carter Hart

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:39Penalty
1st 8:32Oasiz Wiesblatt (1–0)5v4 · high · tip · 7 ft · beat Carter Hart
1st 13:57Penalty
1st 17:33Mathieu Cataford (1–1)high · tip · 17 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 18:06Penalty
2nd 2:04Reid Schaefer (2–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 21 ft · beat Carter Hart
3rd 2:58Penalty
3rd 7:37Jake Lucchini (3–1)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Carter Hart
3rd 17:31Jaycob Megna (3–2)low · slap · 52 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 19:22Reid Schaefer (4–2)empty net · medium · wrist · 32 ft · beat Carter Hart