Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves

2:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.72.8
High danger: 16
Chances: 412
Shots: 2728

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal28

4Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances6

1.67Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–11	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.7
2nd	9–10	2–7	0–2	0.7–1.2
3rd	12–7	1–3	0–3	0.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: -0.22

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: -0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:21Colby Barlow (0–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 15:51Penalty
1st 16:24Penalty
2nd 1:56David Gustafsson (0–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 2:36Penalty
2nd 4:09Walker Duehr (0–3)4v5 · high · 17 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 6:56Evan Vierling (1–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 14:17Penalty
3rd 3:50Penalty
3rd 17:46Aleksi Heimosalmi (2–3)low · 63 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis