AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 22

Iowa Wild at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Iowa Wild
2:7
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

IATORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
30%70%
xG
2.42.9
High danger
26
Chances
810
Shots
3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29
8Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances6
2.37Expected goals2.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–90–30–10.2–0.9
2nd15–114–21–11.3–0.7
3rd9–94–51–40.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
31
Saves
29
Allowed
2
xGA
2.37
GSAx
+0.37
Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
29
Saves
22
Allowed
7
xGA
2.94
GSAx
-4.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:18Noah Chadwick (0–1)low · 55 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 3:51Benoit-Olivier Groulx (0–2)low · 32 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 10:21Penalty
  • 1st 10:52Logan Shaw (0–3)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 14:11Penalty
  • 1st 18:37Penalty
  • 1st 19:31Vinni Lettieri (0–4)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 1:47Penalty
  • 2nd 1:47Penalty
  • 2nd 1:47Penalty
  • 2nd 5:33Penalty
  • 2nd 6:45Penalty
  • 2nd 10:16Penalty
  • 3rd 2:15Chas Sharpe (0–5)medium · 13 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 3:26Gerry Mayhew (1–5)high · 7 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 7:27Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–6)high · 17 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 8:53Bradley Marek (2–6)medium · 11 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 9:38Penalty
  • 3rd 10:38Penalty
  • 3rd 13:03Luke Haymes (2–7)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 13:24Penalty
  • 3rd 13:24Penalty
  • 3rd 13:24Penalty
  • 3rd 13:24Penalty
  • 3rd 13:24Penalty