Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:2

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

LVHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.62.2
High danger: 53
Chances: 108
Shots: 2719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal19

10Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances3

2.65Expected goals2.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–6	2–3	0–1	0.3–0.7
2nd	11–8	4–5	2–2	1.0–1.3
3rd	12–5	4–0	3–0	1.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 17
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: +0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 1:16Penalty
2nd 9:25Penalty
2nd 10:31Brendan Brisson (0–1)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 15:10Gabe Perreault (0–2)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
2nd 16:52Penalty
3rd 1:35Penalty
3rd 2:22Christian Kyrou (1–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 33 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 5:38Carl Grundström (2–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 7:04Denver Barkey (3–2)high · 7 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 7:37Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty