Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans

4:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.63.0
High danger: 73
Chances: 149
Shots: 3036

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal36

14Scoring chances9

7High-danger chances3

3.59Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–15	4–4	2–2	1.3–1.2
2nd	8–9	4–2	2–0	1.0–0.7
3rd	11–12	6–3	3–1	1.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:32	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: -0.03

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.59
GSAx: -0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:14Brendan Warren (1–0)low · 17 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 13:45Mason Geertsen (2–0)high · 21 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 19:33Lenni Hämeenaho (2–1)low · 38 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 4:20Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 8:43Penalty
2nd 10:34Penalty
2nd 12:47Nathan Légaré (2–2)medium · 34 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 14:52Penalty
2nd 17:50Penalty
2nd 19:32Olivier Nadeau (3–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 19:42Penalty
3rd 4:38Trevor Kuntar (4–2)high · 10 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 9:53Penalty
3rd 14:04Penalty
3rd 14:37Xavier Parent (4–3)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Devon Levi