Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles

1:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 1.72.7
High danger: 26
Chances: 57
Shots: 2230

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances6

1.69Expected goals2.68

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	2–4	2–3	0.8–1.3
2nd	9–12	1–0	0–0	0.6–0.6
3rd	6–7	2–3	0–3	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.68
GSAx: -0.32

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: +0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:58Julian Lutz (0–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Trent Miner
1st 5:01Ivan Ivan (1–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
1st 11:10Penalty
1st 17:35Michal Kunc (1–2)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 18:53Penalty
3rd 6:11Penalty
3rd 11:36Penalty
3rd 19:10Ben McCartney (1–3)empty net · low · 55 ft · beat Trent Miner