AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 22

Milwaukee Admirals at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Milwaukee Admirals
1:5
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

MILHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
8%92%
xG
1.44.6
High danger
012
Chances
318
Shots
2039

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal39
3Scoring chances18
0High-danger chances12
1.37Expected goals4.60

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–171–100–80.3–2.5
2nd7–101–50–20.5–1.2
3rd9–121–30–20.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
4.60
GSAx
-0.40
Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.37
GSAx
+0.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:18Penalty
  • 1st 3:18Penalty
  • 1st 5:34Kyle Marino (1–0)low · wrist · 44 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 1st 7:16Penalty
  • 1st 7:39Penalty
  • 1st 9:29Trevor Connelly (1–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 16:48Tanner Laczynski (1–2)medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 0:24Penalty
  • 2nd 2:06Penalty
  • 2nd 4:19Penalty
  • 2nd 7:19Penalty
  • 3rd 9:34Jonas Røndbjerg (1–3)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 13:43Lucas Johansen (1–4)high · wrist · rebound · 27 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 14:32Penalty
  • 3rd 14:32Penalty
  • 3rd 16:34Jakub Brabenec (1–5)empty net · low · wrist · 152 ft · beat Matthew Murray