AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 23

Colorado Eagles at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Colorado Eagles
5:2
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

COLTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
3.33.3
High danger
54
Chances
1312
Shots
2837

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal37
13Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances4
3.29Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–186–83–21.7–1.6
2nd7–93–20–10.6–0.8
3rd7–104–22–11.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:50+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isak Posch
Shots faced
37
Saves
35
Allowed
2
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+1.29
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
28
Saves
23
Allowed
5
xGA
3.29
GSAx
-1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:59Alex Barré-Boulet (1–0)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 1:50Daniil But (1–1)low · 28 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 1st 2:14Reilly Connors (2–1)high · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 3:20Penalty
  • 1st 8:16Tye Felhaber (3–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 18:24Penalty
  • 2nd 1:35Penalty
  • 2nd 6:03Penalty
  • 2nd 9:38Alex Barré-Boulet (4–1)low · 18 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 10:23Penalty
  • 2nd 14:22Penalty
  • 2nd 14:22Penalty
  • 3rd 0:48Penalty
  • 3rd 6:59Montana Onyebuchi (4–2)low · 40 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 19:41Tye Felhaber (5–2)empty net · medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta