AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, November 25

Belleville Senators at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Belleville Senators
5:2
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

BELMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
71%29%
xG
4.32.9
High danger
94
Chances
1912
Shots
3633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal33
19Scoring chances12
9High-danger chances4
4.30Expected goals2.89

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–86–13–02.0–0.5
2nd11–125–63–21.0–1.2
3rd11–138–53–21.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
4.30
GSAx
-0.70
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
33
Saves
31
Allowed
2
xGA
2.89
GSAx
+0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:38Penalty
  • 1st 9:09Jamieson Rees (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 9:13Penalty
  • 1st 9:13Penalty
  • 1st 9:52Penalty
  • 1st 10:05Penalty
  • 1st 11:48Arthur Kaliyev (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 18:59Oskar Pettersson (3–0)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 0:49Parker Ford (3–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 10:35Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Penalty
  • 2nd 15:39Penalty
  • 3rd 2:44Kale Clague (3–2)high · rebound · 22 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 7:33Penalty
  • 3rd 10:10Oskar Pettersson (4–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 17:43Jorian Donovan (5–2)empty net · low · 176 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis