AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 26

Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
6:3
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
3.44.4
High danger
79
Chances
1214
Shots
2238

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal38
12Scoring chances14
7High-danger chances9
3.36Expected goals4.42

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–74–31–10.9–0.8
2nd8–243–71–51.0–2.7
3rd10–75–45–31.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD39:53 of the 3rd10:0710:07+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
4.42
GSAx
+1.42
Callum Tung
Shots faced
22
Saves
16
Allowed
6
xGA
3.36
GSAx
-2.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:29Otto Stenberg (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 1st 6:08Penalty
  • 1st 14:34Penalty
  • 1st 15:35Matthew Peca (2–0)5v4 · medium · 11 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 2nd 1:36Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–0)low · 35 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 2nd 5:18Brennan Othmann (3–1)low · 44 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 13:26Dylan Roobroeck (3–2)low · 37 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 6:01Matt Luff (4–2)high · 10 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 3rd 9:38Penalty
  • 3rd 9:53Samuel Johannesson (5–2)5v4 · low · 66 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 3rd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:14Brendan Brisson (5–3)high · 9 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 16:54Calle Rosén (6–3)high · 9 ft · beat Callum Tung
  • 3rd 17:37Penalty