Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

6:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.23.4
High danger: 65
Chances: 1010
Shots: 3133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances10

6High-danger chances5

3.23Expected goals3.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	5–3	2–1	1.6–1.0
2nd	9–11	2–3	2–2	0.7–1.3
3rd	14–11	3–4	2–2	0.9–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	15:51 of the 3rd	4:09	4:09	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.43
GSAx: +0.43

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 25
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: -2.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:21Bokondji Imama (1–0)grade A · 194 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 6:27Penalty
1st 6:27Penalty
1st 7:18Penalty
1st 11:56Rutger McGroarty (2–0)low · 42 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 14:45Avery Hayes (3–0)low · 42 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 18:06Penalty
1st 18:06Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 16:06Brett Leason (3–1)grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 1:25Penalty
3rd 1:25Penalty
3rd 1:25Penalty
3rd 1:25Penalty
3rd 2:30Ilya Protas (3–2)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 6:39Penalty
3rd 10:17Penalty
3rd 14:24Penalty
3rd 15:51Phil Tomasino (4–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 17:25Avery Hayes (5–2)empty net · low · 51 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
3rd 17:52Eriks Mateiko (5–3)low · 31 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 19:31Sam Poulin (6–3)empty net · low · 63 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund