AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, November 26

Providence Bruins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Providence Bruins
5:1
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

PROTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
36%64%
xG
2.43.5
High danger
59
Chances
913
Shots
2636

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal36
9Scoring chances13
5High-danger chances9
2.38Expected goals3.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–144–62–51.1–1.6
2nd11–123–42–30.8–1.1
3rd9–102–31–10.5–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:33+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
36
Saves
35
Allowed
1
xGA
3.53
GSAx
+2.53
Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.38
GSAx
-2.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:03Fabian Lysell (1–0)low · 17 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 8:09Penalty
  • 1st 11:28Penalty
  • 1st 12:15Patrick Brown (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 13:26Penalty
  • 1st 14:56Penalty
  • 2nd 5:57Penalty
  • 2nd 8:56Penalty
  • 2nd 16:56Fabian Lysell (3–0)high · 7 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 2:58Penalty
  • 3rd 6:25Logan Shaw (3–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 9:06Penalty
  • 3rd 11:52Georgii Merkulov (4–1)high · 10 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 14:55Penalty
  • 3rd 15:52Dans Locmelis (5–1)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov