Belleville Senators at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Belleville Senators

1:5

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

BELMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 2.05.3
High danger: 112
Chances: 522
Shots: 2335

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal35

5Scoring chances22

1High-danger chances12

1.96Expected goals5.32

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–3	2–0	0–0	0.6–0.1
2nd	4–21	1–15	0–6	0.3–3.3
3rd	8–11	2–7	1–6	1.0–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 30
Allowed: 5
xGA: 5.32
GSAx: +0.32

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.96
GSAx: +0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:59Penalty
1st 13:09Penalty
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 17:29Penalty
2nd 1:54Mason Shaw (0–1)low · 22 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 3:01Penalty
2nd 8:04Penalty
2nd 11:05Jaret Anderson-Dolan (0–2)medium · 28 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 14:16Penalty
2nd 17:43Penalty
2nd 17:48Penalty
2nd 18:24Brad Lambert (0–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 23 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 18:45Samuel Fagemo (0–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 36 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 0:56Olle Lycksell (1–4)medium · 28 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 5:29Samuel Fagemo (1–5)high · 17 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 10:12Penalty
3rd 14:14Penalty
3rd 14:14Penalty