Iowa Wild at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Iowa Wild

2:7

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

IAMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

37%63%

xG: 2.73.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 610
Shots: 3730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal30

6Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances4

2.67Expected goals3.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	0–2	0–1	0.4–1.1
2nd	9–14	2–5	0–1	0.5–1.2
3rd	21–7	4–3	3–2	1.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: +0.67

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 23
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.13
GSAx: -3.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:02Tanner Molendyk (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 3:04Michael Milne (1–1)low · 30 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 5:39Penalty
1st 5:39Penalty
1st 5:39Penalty
1st 7:27Penalty
1st 7:27Penalty
1st 8:46Penalty
1st 12:33Penalty
1st 15:26Penalty
1st 17:25Penalty
1st 17:25Penalty
1st 17:38Penalty
1st 19:45Oasiz Wiesblatt (1–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 5:36Joakim Kemell (1–3)medium · 33 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 6:05Penalty
2nd 9:12Penalty
2nd 13:23Penalty
2nd 16:50Penalty
2nd 19:07David Edstrom (1–4)high · 13 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 2:52Reid Schaefer (1–5)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 4:25Penalty
3rd 4:57Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 16:01Cole O’Hara (1–6)low · 37 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 17:23Cameron Butler (2–6)low · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 19:24Cole O’Hara (2–7)high · 7 ft · beat Cal Petersen