AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 28

Springfield Thunderbirds at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
6:3
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

SPRBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
2.12.6
High danger
43
Chances
75
Shots
2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33
7Scoring chances5
4High-danger chances3
2.09Expected goals2.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–150–10–10.2–1.3
2nd9–65–22–11.2–0.5
3rd9–122–22–10.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-0.43
Marcus Högberg
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.09
GSAx
-3.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:29Julien Gauthier (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 3:54Matthew Maggio (0–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 7:20Matthew Highmore (0–3)low · 37 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 12:03Penalty
  • 1st 12:03Penalty
  • 2nd 5:13Matt Luff (1–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 14:43Juraj Pekarcik (2–3)grade A · 13 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 2nd 16:50Penalty
  • 2nd 17:47Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (3–3)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 1:07Penalty
  • 3rd 3:07Chris Wagner (4–3)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 7:00Chris Wagner (5–3)low · 64 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
  • 3rd 7:52Penalty
  • 3rd 13:58Penalty
  • 3rd 13:58Penalty
  • 3rd 17:38Michael Buchinger (6–3)empty net · low · 176 ft · beat Marcus Högberg