Toronto Marlies at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Toronto Marlies

1:5

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

TORCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

10%90%

xG: 1.63.9
High danger: 07
Chances: 610
Shots: 1937

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances10

0High-danger chances7

1.55Expected goals3.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–14	4–3	0–2	0.7–1.2
2nd	11–9	2–3	0–3	0.7–1.0
3rd	3–14	0–4	0–2	0.2–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -2.03

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.55
GSAx: +0.55

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: +0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:21Riese Gaber (0–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 10:11Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 16:51Penalty
1st 19:37Brett Chorske (1–2)low · 18 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 0:41Penalty
2nd 1:19Gracyn Sawchyn (1–3)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 3:18Penalty
2nd 8:25Sandis Vilmanis (1–4)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 18:56Brett Chorske (1–5)low · 40 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 19:43Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty