AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 28

Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks
1:4
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
56%44%
xG
3.22.5
High danger
56
Chances
1210
Shots
3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24
12Scoring chances10
5High-danger chances6
3.21Expected goals2.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st17–66–14–01.9–0.4
2nd9–93–31–20.8–0.8
3rd5–93–60–40.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
30
Allowed
1
xGA
3.22
GSAx
+2.22
Aku Koskenvuo
Shots faced
24
Saves
20
Allowed
4
xGA
2.45
GSAx
-1.55

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:25Penalty
  • 1st 10:52Penalty
  • 1st 15:26Penalty
  • 1st 18:42Penalty
  • 2nd 16:05Penalty
  • 2nd 18:40Penalty
  • 2nd 19:53Andrew Agozzino (0–1)5v4 · low · 30 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 3rd 0:25Penalty
  • 3rd 1:25Andrew Agozzino (0–2)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 3rd 5:48Penalty
  • 3rd 6:36Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–2)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 8:41Andrew Agozzino (1–3)high · 17 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 3rd 10:29Penalty
  • 3rd 16:20Max Szuber (1–4)low · 69 ft · beat Aku Koskenvuo
  • 3rd 17:01Penalty
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty
  • 3rd 19:55Penalty