Syracuse Crunch at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Syracuse Crunch

3:4

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

SYRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 2.92.1
High danger: 73
Chances: 117
Shots: 2928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal28

11Scoring chances7

7High-danger chances3

2.93Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	4–3	2–1	1.0–0.6
2nd	12–13	5–1	4–0	1.2–0.7
3rd	9–7	2–3	1–2	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	19:46 of the 3rd	0:14	0:14	+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -0.07

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -1.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:14Penalty
1st 3:14Penalty
1st 14:00Isak Rosén (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 3:06Wojciech Stachowiak (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 4:07Penalty
2nd 9:08Jakob Pelletier (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 17:57Noah Laaouan (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 6:33Penalty
3rd 10:29Jakob Pelletier (3–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:05Carson Meyer (3–3)high · 7 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 16:11Penalty
3rd 19:46Zac Jones (3–4)medium · 7 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 19:57Penalty