AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, November 28

Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
3:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
2.81.9
High danger
33
Chances
109
Shots
3816

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal16
10Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances3
2.85Expected goals1.93

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–34–30–11.0–0.7
2nd15–55–33–21.4–0.6
3rd9–81–30–00.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONTHSK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT116:56 of the 3rd3:040:09+0.052 pts
HSK118:03 of the 3rd1:571:57+0.045 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
2.85
GSAx
-0.15
Carter Hart
Shots faced
16
Saves
12
Allowed
4
xGA
1.93
GSAx
-2.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:16Penalty
  • 1st 5:23Andre Lee (0–1)5v4 · grade A · 7 ft · beat Carter Hart
  • 2nd 3:07Penalty
  • 2nd 4:58Taylor Ward (0–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Carter Hart
  • 2nd 6:42Penalty
  • 2nd 8:29Matyas Sapovaliv (1–2)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 9:07Penalty
  • 2nd 12:27Tanner Laczynski (2–2)high · 8 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 7:14Penalty
  • 3rd 11:48Penalty
  • 3rd 14:49Tanner Laczynski (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 17:05Angus Booth (3–3)low · 62 ft · beat Carter Hart
  • 3rd 18:03Cole Guttman (3–4)medium · 9 ft · beat Carter Hart