Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves

4:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.51.9
High danger: 62
Chances: 156
Shots: 3024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances2

3.54Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	5–1	1–0	0.9–0.3
2nd	9–10	3–3	0–1	0.7–0.8
3rd	12–9	7–2	5–1	2.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: -0.46

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: +0.89

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:39Penalty
1st 2:45Kale Clague (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
1st 13:35Penalty
1st 15:57Penalty
1st 16:04Bradly Nadeau (1–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 2:00Penalty
3rd 2:38Bradly Nadeau (2–1)medium · 24 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 6:29Penalty
3rd 14:59Penalty
3rd 17:35Felix Unger Sörum (3–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 18:12Nikita Pavlychev (4–1)empty net · low · 89 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis