AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 29

Toronto Marlies at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Toronto Marlies
5:3
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

TORCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
44%56%
xG
3.03.9
High danger
117
Chances
1413
Shots
2038

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal38
14Scoring chances13
11High-danger chances7
3.01Expected goals3.85

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–77–35–11.5–0.6
2nd7–136–45–11.2–1.2
3rd3–181–61–50.3–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Peksa
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.86
GSAx
+0.86
Kirill Gerasimyuk
Shots faced
20
Saves
15
Allowed
5
xGA
3.01
GSAx
-1.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:04Penalty
  • 1st 1:04Penalty
  • 1st 1:27Jacob Quillan (1–0)high · rebound · 5 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 1st 11:37Penalty
  • 1st 13:08Luke Haymes (2–0)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 1st 14:32Travis Boyd (3–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 2nd 2:33Sandis Vilmanis (3–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 2nd 8:14Gracyn Sawchyn (3–2)high · 6 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 2nd 11:04Penalty
  • 2nd 13:48Logan Shaw (4–2)high · 11 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk
  • 2nd 15:55Penalty
  • 3rd 0:26Penalty
  • 3rd 4:31Penalty
  • 3rd 7:48Penalty
  • 3rd 9:34Ben Steeves (4–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
  • 3rd 19:34Reese Johnson (5–3)empty net · low · 43 ft · beat Kirill Gerasimyuk