Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders

3:2

Final / SO

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.92.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 1010
Shots: 3133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances4

2.94Expected goals2.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	4–3	3–0	1.2–0.7
2nd	14–9	6–1	1–0	1.4–0.5
3rd	6–10	0–5	0–3	0.4–1.1
OT	0–5	0–1	0–1	0.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:15	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.90
GSAx: +0.90

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: +0.94

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:16Eetu Liukas (1–0)high · 7 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 16:08Penalty
2nd 9:10Penalty
2nd 9:49Hugh McGing (1–1)4v5 · low · 37 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 2:09Penalty
3rd 9:55Juraj Pekarcik (1–2)high · 17 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 11:57Penalty
3rd 18:11Luke Rowe (2–2)low · 64 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
OT 3:29Penalty