Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:6

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

WBSHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.43.2
High danger: 410
Chances: 1213
Shots: 3724

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal24

12Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances10

3.37Expected goals3.20

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	4–5	1–5	1.0–1.0
2nd	14–9	5–3	1–1	1.2–0.8
3rd	12–8	3–5	2–4	1.1–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	3	4:34 of the 3rd	15:26	15:26	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.37
GSAx: +1.37

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -2.11

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 6
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.32
GSAx: -0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:26Penalty
1st 5:42Graeme Clarke (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 6:24Penalty
1st 7:06Ilya Protas (0–2)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
1st 8:16Penalty
1st 16:19Jack St. Ivany (1–2)low · 41 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 2:27Penalty
2nd 10:17Sam Bitten (1–3)low · 39 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 14:43David Gucciardi (1–4)low · 38 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 18:18Penalty
2nd 18:18Penalty
2nd 19:24Gabe Klassen (2–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:35Penalty
3rd 3:59Penalty
3rd 4:28Penalty
3rd 4:34Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–5)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:03Penalty
3rd 14:10Ilya Protas (2–6)empty net · grade A · 10 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 20:00Penalty