Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

3:5

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 4.62.3
High danger: 95
Chances: 157
Shots: 4021

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal21

15Scoring chances7

9High-danger chances5

4.60Expected goals2.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	2–4	2–3	0.8–1.0
2nd	13–10	6–3	3–2	1.8–1.1
3rd	17–3	7–0	4–0	2.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.60
GSAx: +1.60

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -2.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:28Penalty
1st 1:28Penalty
1st 5:23Jakob Pelletier (0–1)low · 25 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 6:14Calen Addison (1–1)low · rebound · 41 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 7:47Penalty
1st 16:35Wojciech Stachowiak (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 3:56Penalty
2nd 4:34Penalty
2nd 6:31Mike Hardman (2–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 13:10Matteo Pietroniro (2–3)low · 30 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 16:12Penalty
2nd 17:35Jakob Pelletier (2–4)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 19:28Xavier Parent (3–4)low · 28 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
3rd 0:27Penalty
3rd 4:15Mitchell Chaffee (3–5)low · 43 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 17:25Penalty