AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 29

Providence Bruins at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Providence Bruins
6:3
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

PROBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
2.32.4
High danger
22
Chances
910
Shots
2519

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 35% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal19
9Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances2
2.34Expected goals2.37

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–74–31–00.9–0.7
2nd9–63–21–10.8–0.6
3rd8–62–50–10.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL30:00 of the 3rd20:0012:55+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
25
Saves
19
Allowed
6
xGA
2.34
GSAx
-3.66
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
19
Saves
16
Allowed
3
xGA
2.37
GSAx
-0.63

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:45Patrick Brown (1–0)medium · backhand · 8 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 1st 10:57Lassi Thomson (1–1)low · snap · 36 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 1st 17:48Penalty
  • 1st 19:18Jacob Perreault (2–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 14 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 7:15Jacob Perreault (3–1)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 2nd 19:49Matthew Poitras (4–1)high · wrist · 18 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 4:34Penalty
  • 3rd 5:04Arthur Kaliyev (4–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 35 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 5:07Penalty
  • 3rd 5:22Xavier Bourgault (4–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 8 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 5:27Penalty
  • 3rd 6:24Dans Locmelis (5–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
  • 3rd 18:01Jake Schmaltz (6–3)empty net · low · 156 ft · beat Mads Søgaard