Abbotsford Canucks at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Abbotsford Canucks

5:2

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

ABBTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

89%11%

xG: 3.71.8
High danger: 81
Chances: 133
Shots: 2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26

13Scoring chances3

8High-danger chances1

3.73Expected goals1.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	3–1	2–0	1.0–0.7
2nd	11–8	5–1	3–1	1.5–0.6
3rd	8–7	5–1	3–0	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	3	10:09 of the 3rd	9:51	9:51	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.73
GSAx: -1.27

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:06Noel Nordh (0–1)low · 20 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 18:40Penalty
1st 19:40Joseph LaBate (1–1)5v4 · grade A · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 12:16Dino Kambeitz (2–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 15:33Penalty
2nd 18:52Penalty
2nd 19:18Penalty
3rd 5:53Danila Klimovich (3–1)high · 9 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 10:09Nils Åman (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 14:25Penalty
3rd 14:28Danila Klimovich (5–1)5v4 · medium · 48 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 19:31Michal Kunc (5–2)low · 42 ft · beat Jiří Patera