AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, November 29

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
4:7
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
2.32.3
High danger
23
Chances
99
Shots
2327

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal27
9Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances3
2.32Expected goals2.32

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–133–30–00.6–1.1
2nd6–91–20–10.5–0.5
3rd10–55–42–21.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HSK−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HSK50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jesper Vikman
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.21
GSAx
-3.79
Connor Ingram
Shots faced
18
Saves
16
Allowed
2
xGA
1.68
GSAx
-0.32
Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
5
Saves
3
Allowed
2
xGA
0.65
GSAx
-1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:20Seth Griffith (0–1)low · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 1st 7:19Penalty
  • 1st 13:41Penalty
  • 1st 15:12Quinn Hutson (0–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 1st 18:27Quinn Hutson (0–3)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 2nd 6:27Penalty
  • 2nd 9:09Penalty
  • 2nd 14:03Penalty
  • 2nd 17:32Rem Pitlick (0–4)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 2nd 18:15Penalty
  • 2nd 18:15Penalty
  • 2nd 18:15Penalty
  • 2nd 18:57Roby Järventie (0–5)5v4 · high · wrist · 33 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 3rd 1:03Jonas Røndbjerg (1–5)medium · wrist · 16 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 6:18Penalty
  • 3rd 7:00Seth Griffith (1–6)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 35 ft · beat Jesper Vikman
  • 3rd 7:34Mitch McLain (2–6)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:24Penalty
  • 3rd 17:46Kai Uchacz (3–6)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 19:09Jakub Brabenec (4–6)high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 19:47Max Jones (4–7)empty net · medium · wrist · 26 ft