Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves

3:4

Final / SO

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.12.4
High danger: 60
Chances: 115
Shots: 3138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal38

11Scoring chances5

6High-danger chances0

3.06Expected goals2.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	4–2	4–0	1.3–0.5
2nd	13–11	5–1	2–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	6–15	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.9
OT	1–4	1–0	0–0	0.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:59	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 35
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -0.63

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:42Brayden Yager (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 5:45Penalty
2nd 5:45Penalty
2nd 15:49Felix Unger Sörum (1–1)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 16:38Penalty
2nd 19:07Penalty
2nd 19:58Ryan Suzuki (2–1)5v4 · medium · 9 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 10:53Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–2)low · 14 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 16:49Nikita Chibrikov (2–3)low · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 17:55Nikita Pavlychev (3–3)low · 40 ft · beat Isaac Poulter