AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, November 30

Providence Bruins at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Providence Bruins
6:4
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

PROBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
59%41%
xG
3.52.5
High danger
35
Chances
159
Shots
3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 35% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25
15Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances5
3.52Expected goals2.45

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–64–11–01.1–0.5
2nd17–810–52–32.1–1.0
3rd5–111–30–20.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−3−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL30:00 of the 3rd20:0013:39+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Simon Zajicek
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.45
GSAx
-1.55
Jackson Parsons
Shots faced
25
Saves
20
Allowed
5
xGA
3.20
GSAx
-1.80
Mads Søgaard
Shots faced
4
Saves
4
Allowed
0
xGA
0.20
GSAx
+0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:42Jake Schmaltz (1–0)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
  • 1st 9:08Wyatt Bongiovanni (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
  • 1st 11:04Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:01Victor Söderström (2–1)low · 49 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
  • 2nd 8:21Fabian Lysell (3–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
  • 2nd 8:39Penalty
  • 2nd 9:55Frederic Brunet (4–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
  • 2nd 11:56Penalty
  • 2nd 11:56Penalty
  • 2nd 14:14Riley Duran (5–1)high · 8 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
  • 2nd 15:56Xavier Bourgault (5–2)high · 17 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
  • 2nd 17:06Penalty
  • 3rd 8:20Penalty
  • 3rd 8:38Arthur Kaliyev (5–3)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
  • 3rd 14:06Olle Lycksell (5–4)low · 23 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
  • 3rd 19:59Matthew Poitras (6–4)empty net · medium · 24 ft