Laval Rocket at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Laval Rocket

4:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LAVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.91.6
High danger: 31
Chances: 105
Shots: 2918

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal18

10Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances1

2.93Expected goals1.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–3	4–0	2–0	1.1–0.1
2nd	10–6	3–2	0–0	0.9–0.5
3rd	10–9	3–3	1–1	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.93
GSAx: -1.07

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 15
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:35Louie Belpedio (0–1)low · 50 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 13:34Penalty
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 7:35Alex Belzile (1–1)low · 45 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 8:13Marc Del Gaizo (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 11:48Penalty
2nd 14:24Penalty
2nd 14:24Penalty
2nd 14:24Penalty
2nd 16:13Grant Cruikshank (2–2)4v5 · medium · 22 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 18:58Luke Tuch (3–2)low · 38 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 3:35Grant Cruikshank (3–3)grade A · 19 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
3rd 6:29Penalty
3rd 10:48Xavier Simoneau (4–3)low · 37 ft · beat Clay Stevenson