Rockford IceHogs at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Rockford IceHogs

3:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

RFDMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

80%20%

xG: 3.11.9
High danger: 52
Chances: 125
Shots: 3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27

12Scoring chances5

5High-danger chances2

3.06Expected goals1.90

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	4–2	1–1	0.8–1.0
2nd	18–10	4–2	4–1	1.6–0.6
3rd	8–6	4–1	0–0	0.7–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	16:41 of the 3rd	3:19	3:19	+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: +0.06

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.90
GSAx: -0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:11Andrew Gibson (0–1)low · 27 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 10:09Penalty
1st 12:13Penalty
2nd 6:34Penalty
2nd 7:46Penalty
2nd 16:03Joey Anderson (1–1)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 3:09Nick Lardis (2–1)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 16:41Nick Lardis (3–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 18:21Ryan Ufko (3–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty