Texas Stars at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Texas Stars

4:1

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

TEXONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.11.9
High danger: 31
Chances: 65
Shots: 2526

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances1

2.10Expected goals1.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	1–2	1–0	0.3–0.6
2nd	12–10	4–3	2–1	1.2–0.9
3rd	7–8	1–0	0–0	0.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	15:09 of the 3rd	4:51	4:51	+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: +0.89

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.09
GSAx: -1.91

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:57Penalty
1st 14:04Artem Shlaine (1–0)high · 18 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 1:01Penalty
2nd 4:13Cole Guttman (1–1)low · 26 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
2nd 11:07Penalty
2nd 17:38Penalty
2nd 19:50Penalty
2nd 19:55Artem Shlaine (2–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 4:52Penalty
3rd 15:09Kole Lind (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:51Matthew Seminoff (4–1)empty net · low · 35 ft · beat Pheonix Copley