Providence Bruins at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Providence Bruins

1:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

PROLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.21.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 125
Shots: 2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22

12Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances4

3.19Expected goals1.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	2–2	0–1	0.6–0.5
2nd	8–8	4–1	1–1	1.1–0.6
3rd	13–7	6–2	3–2	1.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +2.19

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.67
GSAx: -2.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:46Penalty
1st 10:56Marc Del Gaizo (0–1)low · 63 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 3:24Penalty
2nd 7:04Penalty
2nd 11:17Frederic Brunet (1–1)low · snap · 59 ft · beat Jacob Fowler
2nd 17:30Alex Belzile (1–2)high · snap · 21 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 18:23Penalty
3rd 6:05Penalty
3rd 8:20Penalty
3rd 8:20Penalty
3rd 9:17Penalty
3rd 10:38Xavier Simoneau (1–3)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 11:09Penalty
3rd 11:09Penalty
3rd 18:03Lucas Condotta (1–4)high · 8 ft · beat Michael DiPietro