Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers

3:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.23.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 814
Shots: 2336

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal36

8Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances7

2.16Expected goals3.34

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	1–3	1–2	0.5–0.9
2nd	5–18	4–8	0–4	0.6–1.9
3rd	10–7	3–3	2–1	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	19:29 of the 3rd	0:31	0:31	+0.010 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ivan Prosvetov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +2.11

Ty Young

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: -0.84

Owen Say

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 3
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.23
GSAx: -0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 16:07Penalty
1st 16:07Penalty
2nd 7:33Penalty
2nd 10:35Penalty
2nd 12:07Penalty
2nd 13:35Mackenzie MacEachern (0–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Ivan Prosvetov
2nd 18:53Penalty
3rd 5:02Clark Bishop (1–1)medium · 33 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 12:24Vilmer Alriksson (1–2)high · 13 ft · beat Owen Say
3rd 15:07Justin Kirkland (2–2)low · 33 ft · beat Ty Young
3rd 19:29Carter King (3–2)low · 15 ft · beat Ty Young