Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies

4:3

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.12.1
High danger: 52
Chances: 149
Shots: 3122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal22

14Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances2

3.10Expected goals2.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–5	3–2	1–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	10–7	6–2	3–1	1.2–0.6
3rd	8–10	5–5	1–1	1.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:53 of the 3rd	7:07	5:19	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.10
GSAx: -0.90

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -0.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:38Vinni Lettieri (1–0)high · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 3:57Logan Shaw (2–0)medium · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 5:29Olle Lycksell (2–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 7:17Penalty
2nd 3:23Marc Johnstone (3–1)low · 40 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 8:37Penalty
2nd 8:49Garrett Pilon (3–2)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 10:42Penalty
2nd 10:42Penalty
2nd 10:42Penalty
2nd 19:13Penalty
3rd 2:23Penalty
3rd 2:23Penalty
3rd 12:53Reese Johnson (4–2)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 13:49Penalty
3rd 15:08Penalty
3rd 15:08Arthur Kaliyev (4–3)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov