Manitoba Moose at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Manitoba Moose

5:0

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MBCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 3.93.0
High danger: 136
Chances: 1712
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

17Scoring chances12

13High-danger chances6

3.92Expected goals3.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	6–5	5–3	1.5–1.1
2nd	4–10	2–4	1–1	0.3–0.9
3rd	12–11	9–3	7–2	2.1–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	11:31 of the 3rd	8:29	8:29	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +3.03

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 20
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.92
GSAx: -1.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:56Penalty
1st 11:01Brayden Yager (1–0)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
1st 11:54Penalty
1st 19:22Samuel Fagemo (2–0)low · 43 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
2nd 4:47Penalty
2nd 4:47Penalty
2nd 5:46Penalty
3rd 0:24Penalty
3rd 4:18Penalty
3rd 6:36Penalty
3rd 11:31Walker Duehr (3–0)high · 8 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 12:30Walker Duehr (4–0)high · 24 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 15:44Penalty
3rd 15:54Phillip Di Giuseppe (5–0)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Cayden Primeau