Tucson Roadrunners at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

1:5

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

TUCBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

12%88%

xG: 1.83.6
High danger: 18
Chances: 214
Shots: 2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29

2Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances8

1.85Expected goals3.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	0–2	0–0	0.4–0.6
2nd	12–8	1–5	0–2	0.7–1.3
3rd	9–15	1–7	1–6	0.7–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.85
GSAx: +0.85

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.64
GSAx: -1.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:57Penalty
1st 18:11Max Jones (0–1)low · 47 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 4:40Austin Poganski (1–1)low · tip · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 5:15Penalty
2nd 7:20Quinn Hutson (1–2)low · wrist · 32 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 12:00Penalty
2nd 14:12Penalty
2nd 14:12Penalty
2nd 14:16Penalty
3rd 3:44Matvey Petrov (1–3)low · 71 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 18:55Penalty
3rd 18:55Roby Järventie (1–4)empty net · high · slap · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:30Quinn Hutson (1–5)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Matthew Villalta