Texas Stars at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Texas Stars

2:3

Final / SO

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TEXCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.03.6
High danger: 14
Chances: 814
Shots: 2943

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal43

8Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances4

2.04Expected goals3.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	4–8	1–2	0.7–1.5
2nd	9–20	2–3	0–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	9–9	2–3	0–1	0.6–0.8
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:36	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 41
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: +1.58

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: +0.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:01Penalty
1st 14:25Penalty
2nd 1:15Penalty
2nd 9:19Penalty
2nd 14:14John Hayden (0–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 19:18Michael Karow (1–1)low · 31 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 6:31Trey Taylor (2–1)low · 46 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 8:45Penalty
3rd 19:32Logan Morrison (2–2)grade A · 51 ft · beat Rémi Poirier